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Wyoming and Fresno State kick off the 34-game bowl parade from New Mexico. The Bulldogs have moved into the position of heavy favorites, laying 12.5-points, with a total set at 55, according to the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page. Most of the betting attent



2009-12-18

Wyoming and Fresno State kick off the 34-game bowl parade from New Mexico. The Bulldogs have moved into the position of heavy favorites, laying 12.5-points, with a total set at 55, according to the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page. Most of the betting attention seems to be focused on the total as nine of every 10 bettors expect this game to be a shootout.

The Cowboys finished 6-6 in 2009, but proved even more competitive than that, covering seven of their L9 games against the spread. They are playing in a bowl game for the first time in five years. Fresno State was 8-4 in the regular season and comes in having won seven of its L8 games. The Bulldogs have become regular bowl participants, but have struggled horribly in the favorite role, losing their L4 both outright and ATS, including three times vs. Mountain West foes. In fact, underdogs have covered the last eight Fresno State bowl games. These teams used to meet regularly as conference foes, but haven't gone head-to-head since 1997.

It's really hard to make a case that Wyoming deserved a bowl bid. Five of their six wins were by a touchdown or fewer and its only win over a plus-.500 opponent was a 29-22 squeaker over Division I-AA Weber State. In their five games against bowl opponents, the Cowboys were outscored by over 25 points per game. Pat Hill and Fresno State once again took on all comers this season, losing two games against BCS teams (Cincinnati and Boise State) and another in overtime to Big Ten bowler Wisconsin. December double-digit chalks are poor investments so the best place to look here might be the total. Fresno State nets 34.3 PPG and 6.4 yards per play, so it'll certainly put up the points. If Wyoming can muster anything against a Bulldog defense that surrendered 50-plus points three times this season, this one should go over the 55.

Top StatFox ATS Trend
WYOMING is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WYOMING 11.3, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 1*)

Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (FRESNO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

NEW MEXICO BOWL Series Trend: In this battle of Mountain West and WAC teams, the Mountain West team has won two straight games both SU & ATS. The UNDER and underdog are also 2-1. Wyoming would figure to have the edge based upon the aforementioned figures. However, the spreads for the three games have been -1.5, -2, and -2.5, so in each case the games were expected to be competitive. This one is double-digits.


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