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Texas Tech players are insisting that the Mike Leach controversy will not be a distraction to them in the Alamo Bowl game vs. Michigan State. Still, minus their long-time head coach, you have to wonder whether they are capable of pulling it together to be



2010-01-04

Texas Tech players are insisting that the Mike Leach controversy will not be a distraction to them in the Alamo Bowl game vs. Michigan State. Still, minus their long-time head coach, you have to wonder whether they are capable of pulling it together to beat the Spartans, much less cover the heavy TD-chalk line they are laying at Sportsbook.com.

The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the L13 editions. Unfortunately, this is the last time for the immediate future that the conference will be in the game, with the Pac-10 stepping in. Big Ten teams boast a 20-9-1 ATS record in their L30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, often the case in this bowl series. For this year's game, Michigan State (6-6) is a seven-point underdog to Texas Tech, which finished 8-4. Ironically, it is the Spartans with the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. Tech has lost its L4 bowl games ATS and is 0-2 SU and ATS in its L2 Alamo Bowl appearances.

Sometimes analysis is right in front you and that makes breaking down a game simple. Texas Tech is the No. 2 passing team in the country and Michigan State is 103rd at stopping the pass. The Red Raiders are an ordinary 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS versus other bowl participants. However, the Spartans are 1-4 SU and woebegone 0-5 ATS taking on the five teams they played that have postseason appearances. The Michigan State roster is thinner since it played its last game due to suspensions, but rallying the troops doesn't protect a squad that played poorly against better competition and one that can't stop passing teams. Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach has not covered his last four bowl games (2-2), but that stops against an undermanned Michigan State club. Play Texas Tech.

Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
MICHIGAN ST is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MICHIGAN ST 23.4, OPPONENT 31.3 - (Rating = 1*)

Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
TEXAS TECH is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. The average score was TEXAS TECH 31.9, OPPONENT 34.7 - (Rating = 1*)

ALAMO BOWL Series Trend: There are a few significant patterns that have formed in the Alamo Bowl series. First, the Big Ten team is 8-5 SU & 10-3 ATS in the L13 games. Second, the underdog is on a 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS run, and third, UNDER the total has converted in nine of the 13 years. The last four times the point spread was greater than a TD, the dog covered. All signs point to a low-scoring Michigan State ATS win.


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